On August 21st, the latest minutes of the Federal Reserve were published, revealing an increasingly dovish stance that suggests an interest rate cut may be imminent. The Fed's sixth meeting of the year is scheduled for September 18th, and the key question is whether they will reduce interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Following the publication of the minutes and the anticipation of a potential rate cut, Bitcoin experienced an upward trend, as looser monetary policy typically benefits risk-on assets. Since the release of the minutes, Bitcoin has risen from approximately $59,000 to over $63,000.
Over the past two years, the SEC has been targeting various companies within the digital assets space with fines and lawsuits, including the digital assets exchange Kraken. The exchange has been charged with operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker-dealer, and clearing agency. Additional charges include the mishandling of customer information and funds. These charges were brought by the SEC in November 2023, and recently, the firm sought to dismiss the case on the grounds that the SEC was overreaching its congressionally-approved mandate. However, a judge has denied the motion to dismiss, leading to a court case against the SEC. A trial date is expected to be proposed on October 15th.
On August 23rd, news broke that RFK Jr. was dropping out of the presidential race and endorsing Donald Trump. While Trump had been leading the polls against incumbent President Joe Biden significantly, RFK Jr.'s withdrawal and endorsement of Harris caused Trump's lead to diminish, even making Harris the favorite to win the election. Before dropping out, RFK Jr. had garnered 3-5% of the U.S. vote, but his poll numbers had been declining in recent weeks. With his endorsement of Trump, the former President is gaining ground. For instance, on the betting platform Polymarket, Trump’s chances of winning have increased to 50%, while Harris’s are at 49%, compared to just 44% on August 16th. Although the digital asset market initially reacted positively to the prospect of a Trump victory, volatility is now decreasing; however, this may increase as the election approaches.
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